This week China rejected an invitation from Taiwan to engage in official bilateral negotiations. Chinese officials said that they will not participate in peace talks until Taiwan "gives up its party constitution and stops its separatist activities."

In March the Chinese government passed an anti-succession law authorizing the use of military force should Taiwan formally declare its independence. The law also increased Chinese military spending. China wants to avoid entering into an armed conflict over Taiwan, but that does not mean it is unprepared or unwilling to go to war. China’s Foreign Minister made clear China’s intensions when he stated publicly "We will never allow separatist forces to secede from the great motherland...we will never allow it."

The political status of Taiwan is somewhat ambiguous. For the most part Taiwan governs itself. It has its own currency and has formal diplomatic ties with 25 nations. While most nations recognize Taiwan as part of China, many countries (such as the US) have set up unofficial organizations to handle relations with Taiwan. In recent years Taiwan has lobbied strongly for admission into various international organizations. Taiwan has tried and failed 12 times to join the United Nations. China opposes Taiwan's membership in such organizations, most of which require statehood for membership, because it considers Taiwan to be a province of China, not a separate sovereign state. There are some Taiwanese who support reunification with China, others support independence, but the overwhelming majority of the Taiwanese favor maintaining the status quo largely to avoid an armed conflict.

The 1979 Taiwan Relations Act provided the legal basis for the unofficial relationship between the US and Taiwan, and enshrines the US commitment to assisting Taiwan's defensive capability. The United States is Taiwan's biggest ally and arms supplier, and although the US officially recognizes Taiwan as being part of China it opposes any change to the status quo.

Today China has one of the most advanced militaries in the world. China already over 700 short range ballistic missiles deployed opposite Taiwan and it could have as many as 1,000 missiles deployed by next year. China also recently developed the first of a new class of ballistic missile submarines. In addition to which, the Chinese military is developing new JL-2 submarine-launched nuclear missiles. The JL-2 will most likely have multiple warheads, and is expected to have a longer range than the DF-31. Sixteen JL-2s will be deployed on the new submarine, and they will have an estimated range of about 7,500 miles, enough to strike targets throughout the United States.

China's military buildup seems specifically designed to fit a Taiwan conflict scenario and to target US air and naval forces that could become involved. Arthur Lauder, professor of international relations at the University of Pennsylvania, said the Chinese military "is the only one being developed anywhere in the world today that is specifically configured to fight the United States of America...no objective reason exists why China, if she stays on her present course, should not eventually pose an even greater threat to the United States and its friends and allies than did the Soviet Union."

China Rebuffs Taiwan Leader's Invitation - AP
•

China lifts ban on travel to Taiwan - CNN

China woos Taiwan non-separatists - CNN

Background on Taiwan - US Department of State

China to deploy cruise missiles - Taipei Times

Strategic Trends: Rise of the Far East - Koinonia House

Web site:

http://www.khouse.org/

http://store.khouse.org/
Manage Your Subscription: